The Trump administration’s stance on cutting “waste” officially set its sights on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) through targeting it in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

SNAP benefits, under the changes of the OBBBA, are setting states up to pick up the tab significantly and start implementing new rules that could not only potentially cut the number of people eligible for benefits, but also the overages in payments to benefits (waste).

RFK Jr’s push to “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) has prompted significant changes to the American nutritional guide, which has prompted states to “opt-in” to making changes of their own to what is “covered” in their state-level SNAP programs.

Changes from the top (federal), and from the bottom (states), lead us to believe that this is the start of a major structural shift in what Americans will be allowed to purchase while claiming SNAP benefits, which will negatively impact a few of the legacy American beverage and snack food giants.

In our report, we’re going to break down these changes to SNAP, to what degree certain aspects of the program will be affected, and which CPG companies could be feeling the most pain as these developments unravel.

Based on our calculations, 18 states, which account for ~32% of all of SNAP costs, have a waiver approved for the restriction of certain food and beverage items. Some of the companies mentioned could have up to ~2% of their U.S. sales impacted on a seasonally adjusted basis, with ~3% on a normalized basis. Assuming no addition to the already announced 18 states.