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If you’ve followed our work, we’ve been covering LENSAR (LNSR) for the better part of just over one year. Our first report on them was in February 2025, where we argued the company looked compelling as they had just gotten international clearance outside the US to launch their ALLY system not long before.

The stock was trading at just $9.29/share when we shared that note, and quickly touched ~$18/share in less than a month on the back of strong growth. However, LNSR management ended up accepting an offer from Alcon (ALC) for $14/share + $2.75/share CVR if certain performance metrics were met.

We strongly resisted that deal and even penned an open letter to shareholders to reject that deal as we felt it grossly undervalued the company’s potential. Since then, we’ve covered the company periodically as the closing date kept getting pushed out each quarter that came and went. This led us to share our most recent report on November 13th, 2025, which highlighted what the deal-break price could be, and that at the time, we no longer held a position.

Fast forward to yesterday, and it looks like after a long year, LNSR and ALC ended up terminating the deal due to not being confident anymore that the FTC would bless the transaction within the allotted time.

Because of this, the stock dropped hard after hours (~24%) and settled down to $7.85/share. But now with the deal effectively dead, and arb traders getting shaken out AHs and most likely what will be all day today, what does that mean for the stock?

Well, we think that even after the sharp sell-off (for obvious reasons), this stock is worth another look at the very least, especially after just getting $10 million in cash from the deal falling apart and a new credit line from Wells Fargo.

Below, we’re going to look at why this ~$122 million market cap company (~$91 million in after-hours) could return to the same growth story when we first looked at it ~1 year ago. At just 1.5x FY’26 EV/Sales (using the after-hours price of $7.85), could the path back to >$14/share still be alive?

We break down the scenario below that gets you there.

Disclaimer: CGCM does have a position in LENSAR (LNSR) at the time of this report being published.