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The following is part two of a two-part Q4’25 earnings update on Evolv Technologies (EVLV), which we currently have a position in. EVLV is a high-conviction investment for us with a significant portfolio weighting, and we believe it is still being mispriced in the market despite a positive Q4’25 read and what appears to be a conservative guide → compliments of recent macro events.

For those of you reading this for the first time, you can find part one here, and a list of the companies below in that prior note.

With that, let’s get started.

If you haven’t yet, we highly encourage you to read our initial note on the company, published back in January of this year, which dives deeper into the company itself, its business model, and where we thought it was going before its most recent earnings release.

Let’s quickly go over the earnings highlights before we go more in-depth into FY’26 and why this is primed to be a long-term winner for us.

Key highlights:

It seems that our initial thoughts about the company and its prospects have been proven right so far, and management consistently adjusting the FY’25 guide upward was the hint, even though channel checks kept suggesting that more and more deals were being signed.

To quickly highlight, on August 14th, the company guided for FY’25 revenue at $133.5 million at the midpoint. On November 13th, they upped that guidance to $143.5 million at the midpoint. The reality? They came in at ~$146 million in FY’25 revenue. 9.3% above the August 14th guide and 1.7% above the November 13th guide.

The exact execution that an investor wants to see in their management team. However, the unfortunate reality of macro-related events has suppressed what otherwise would have been a stellar earnings report and positive stock price reaction.

Such is life, but the real strength not only came from what they did report, but what management was guiding to. In our original note, we suggested that management has a history of guiding conservatively, and appeared to be doing so once again for FY’26.

This, in our opinion, has created a mispricing opportunity since the start of the year.

Let’s break down the math that suggests why FY’26, if executed according to management’s supposed “comfortable” guide, could once again support another record year.

So, very quickly, to start, we need to acknowledge the increase in mass shootings in 2026. The crux of our thesis was that the country is increasingly becoming unstable, and, because of that, mass shootings are becoming more commonplace.

This year alone, through the end of March, there have been 93 mass shootings in this country. That is up from 69 in 2025 over the same time frame.

Fortunately, we like our investments to have strong tailwinds that will support growth for years to come. Unfortunately, these tailwinds happen to be mass shootings and general weapons-based violence (i.e., knives, etc), which seems to be here to stay. A problem that EVLV is more than capable of helping with, and proving it already has.

Which brings us to our main point. Why FY’26 guide might be looking conservative and a call option that isn’t being priced in yet.

Let’s look at the numbers.