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If you’ve followed our work, you know that we are not biotech investors at heart. We are not doctors, medical professionals, PhDs, or anything when it comes to the medical field. This is largely why we stay away from biotech because we view it as an area where we have absolutely no edge in being able to capture those triple-digit moves before positive phase data comes in.

However, that hasn’t stopped us from investing in biotech once the story has become more fleshed out and the risk associated with the company/drug has been dramatically reduced. This is what led us to invest in Liquidia (LQDA) back in January of 2025. The stock is up ~4x since we published that piece in January of 2025.

And now? Well, we think we’ve found an interesting opportunity, which many in biotech have been optimistic about since last summer, where on one side, we have a possible takeout target and potential bidding war, and on the other, a strong drug candidate that is looking to enter commercialization in 2027.

The company we’re talking about is Abivax (ABVX).

Preview

Recently completed P3 study for obefazimod in July 2025 sent the stock +~600% in a single day. Rightfully so.
Drug efficacy, deliverability, tolerability, and safety profile make it so that many analysts and doctors believe it will be the next best-in-class drug to treat ulcerative colitis (UC).
Stock has been trickling up since July 2025 on optimism of future commercialization, but more recently, on buyout rumors.
Allegedly, LLY and AZN are both interested in ABVX and are willing to pay top dollar; however, no deal has been made yet, and skepticism of a deal taking place is abundant as of late.
ABVX still owns a highly de-risked P3 drug with maintenance data to be released in Q2’26. Absent any left-tail event, it’s hard to imagine that no other pharma company wouldn’t want this asset to fortify their drug pipeline and portfolio.
Fallback, in the event of no buyout, would lead to commercialization, which would take longer to realize gains but would limit downside risk significantly for patient investors.
Below, we’ll walk through our reasoning and assumptions for why a buyout scenario makes sense, and the potential price tags and returns for either pharma stepping in to make a purchase or that ABVX continues with commercialization.