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Key Highlights

  • Since going public back in May of this year, SUJA is down ~70% from its IPO price of $21/share.

  • The company recently announced Q2’26 earnings, which delivered beats on both lines, but slightly lowered FY’26 revenue guidance (-1.2%) on softness in its grocery channel.

  • This caused the stock to plummet ~46% on the day, which we believe was also accompanied by a Hedgeye technical sell alert before its earnings release → did not help the situation.

  • SUJA boasts near best-in-class gross margins, is a category leader in the natural healthy beverages (NHB) category, and has a vertically integrated supply chain.

  • At just 4.9× 2027 EBITDA, we believe the market is pricing SUJA as if it were some SaaS company with AI exposure, or as if it were on the brink of heading towards bankruptcy.

  • Given management has had to deal with a fierce competitive market before and come out the other side stronger, we think there is a case to be made on the risk/reward for a category leader to be potentially favorable at these levels.

  • Should management execute on their immediate and longer-term plans, a market re-rating to more appropriate levels, after a mind boggling sell-off, would put the near-term intrinsic value closer to almost triple the current share price.

  • Disclaimer: Cedar Grove Capital Management (CGCM) is long Suja Life (SUJA).

Foreword

For those of you who are new or do not remember, we first highlighted Suja Life (SUJA) more in-depth a few weeks after it IPO’d and opted to wait and see what management had to say after it reported its first earnings as a public company. You can read it here and would recommend doing so to get brought up to speed on the company.

Mind you, this was after the stock went public at $21/share and we published that note when it was trading at $15.43/share (~27% decline). Our waiting to see what transpired after Q1’26 earnings appeared to be the right call, as the stock quickly sank to just under $9/share before coming back up from its previous lows.

However, last week, the company reported Q2’26 earnings (which beat on revenue and EPS) but took FY’26 revenue guidance down 1.2% at the midpoint, and left adjusted EBITDA the same. That revision led to a sell-off of ~46%, which completely blew our minds. If you didn’t know any better, and we told you a company just dropped 46% on earnings, you probably would have thought it was some SaaS-related company, a shitco, or they just announced something that would arguably lead them to bankruptcy.

But, no. It’s literally a wellness juice company that is actually one, if not the market leader in immunity juice shots, along with the other wellness juices it sells.

Below, we’re going to quickly go over the earnings and why we think the market was wrong to sell off the stock that much, and why it was enough for us to increase our position, which we started accumulating after the Q1’26 drop.

Earnings Recap

If you remember from our IPO note, we highlighted that an interested investor in the company would effectively be underwriting a mature, wellness juice company that just used most of its IPO proceeds to pay down its debt (PE owned). The real “call option” here was in their Slice soda brand scaling and eventually becoming a meaningful contributor to the company’s topline growth as the legacy business allowed it to self-fund this endeavor.

Well, while Slice’s numbers are still small, the company grew net sales by >60% y/y and expanded gross margins by ~27 p.p., primarily driven by a ~94% increase in distribution growth.

Overall, though, the company posted a mere 11.6% y/y growth, which still outperformed the natural healthy beverage (NHB) category and consensus estimates. More specifically, Suja Organic cold-pressed juice grew ~18% in Q2; refresher line +75%, boosted juice +30%.

Gross margin did take a slight hit (-70bps y/y) due to unfavorable absorption timing, but was offset by operational efficiencies due to vertical integration.

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