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When we began covering Hims and Hers Health (HIMS) in 2024 and announcing our long position, we were initially bullish on the company and the strategy that Andrew outlined. However, on the Q2 '24 earnings call, this is when we started to become very concerned that Andrew was perhaps more motivated by the money and ego than by actually delivering on truly helping patients’ needs.

In response to that call, we put out a report with a title that we felt was applicable to how Andrew’s strategy was shifting once he mentioned that he would continue compounding semaglutide even after the shortage was over. That report was titled “HIMS: Icarus Might Be Flying Too Close To The Sun.”

For those of you who are unfamiliar, Icarus was the son of a craftsman in Greek mythology who was imprisoned on the island of Crete. He tried to escape by fashioning wings made out of feathers and wax, and his father told him not to fly too close to the sun, or they’ll melt. However, Icarus did not listen and estatic about the ability of flight, flew too close to the sun, which caused the wax to melt and Icarus to fall into the sea. Because Andrew did not have to fly too close to the sun and still make HIMS a really good company, we felt this comparison was fitting.

Then again, during the Q4’24 earnings call (February 2025), he reinforced his plan to continue to “personalize” compounded GLP-1s despite the shortage ending the week prior. Making another similar distinction to Andrew’s actions, we felt this was a grave mistake. A mistake almost to the likes of Napoleon Bonaparte when he started marching into Russia, which is why we titled that 20-page report “HIMS: Napoleon Begins His March Towards Russia?”

Again, for those unfamiliar, Napoleon's march into Russia would eventually lead to his utter downfall and the end of his first rule as emperor of France. Something that could have been avoided if he weren’t so egotistical, and might we add, greedy (for Andrew’s POV).

Fast forward to October 2025, and just like before, we found something else to compare him to. No matter how many things we flagged, explained, highlighted, corrected, or debunked, nothing seemed to stick. Because Andrew was acting like some untouchable mob boss that thought he could do anything he wanted, we felt it fitting to refer to him as the “Teflon Don of Telehealth,” paying homage to the late John Gotti of the New York Gambino crime family.

In that October report (HIMS: Andrew Dudum. The "Teflon Don" of Telehealth), which we released two days after Andrew’s infamous “👀” tweet, we highlighted three scenarios that could bring the whole thing down. Scenario #3 is what seems to have made investors wary of holding the name any further (combined with a risk-off environment), but more recently, scenario #2 seems to be in full swing.

Aside from the written work, every chat that we’ve had with other portfolio managers, CEOs, lawyers, physicians, etc, we’ve always said the same thing when asked, “how far will Andrew go?”

Our response was always the same.

Andrew is going to push this loophole and this “gray area” as deep as he can for as long as he can, and the only way he’s going to voluntarily stop is if some regulatory agency walks into his office, puts a legal gun to his head, and tells him to stop.

In fact, that’s exactly what we wrote in our March to Russia report after Q4’24 earnings (below).

And what did this untouchable, hero of the common people, this Teflon Don Andrew decide do? He decided to launch a knock-off, compounded version of the literally ~5-week-old Novo Nordisk (NVO) Wegovy pill on Thursday, with no clinical data on the new delivery system it was using. What looked like a clear money grab at the expense of patient safety and drug efficacy → true colors showing.

This set off a string of events that sent the stock cratering ~15% in AHs trading on Friday after not only the FDA saying they were going to move on compounded APIs — and specifcally calling out HIMS — but also the HHS General Counsel tweeting that he had referred HIMS to the DOJ for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.

Title 18 provisions are part of the criminal code, FYI, which is ironic to us because in July of last year, we told Bloomberg Businessweek

Funny how things eventually come around. Since there is now going to be a DOJ probe, and keeping up with the tradition of analogous titles, we felt that this moment, which will forever be seared into Andrew’s brain, is still akin to our Napoleon analogy.

Keeping with that analogy, that’s why we’ve gone ahead and titled this update, “Napoleon Watches Moscow Burn.”

TL;DR - Napoleon moved too far and too quickly into Russia, extending supply lines beyond resupply, wanted to capture Moscow, but instead, the Russians burned it to the ground (scorched Earth). Outsmarted, exhausted, starving, and ill-equipped for a Russian winter, Napoleon entered Russia with ~500,000 troops and came back to France with less than 10% of his men after watching Moscow burn.

Welcome to Andrews’ “Moscow burning” moment.

Below, we’re going to talk about what we think the repercussions could be from these announcements, what that means for the stock going forward, and what both bulls and bears should be aware of due to this fallout.

Disclaimer: Cedar Grove Capital Management does not have a position in Hims and Hers Health (HIMS) at the time of writing this report.